>China's artificial intelligence and semiconductor-heavy STAR50 index has plunged 40% in less than four months, wiping out roughly $480 billion in market value as a two-year speculative rally comes to a sharp halt.Bros....is it starting?
>>110185433Sillycon Valley is next hopefully
>>110185433>Bros....is it startingI haven't been following china, but I doubt it can fail in the US.Even if it turns out it is overrated and the tech hits a wall (which so far I see no reason to believe), it'd be very much a "the banks are too big to fail" type situation. The US without AI growth would almost immediately fall into a debt crisis with bond markets wreaking havoc, so that can't happen. Certainly not under trump. Not because he's good at preventing it, but because he'd be willing to move heaven and earth to delay the inevitable just so it doesn't happen under his term, no matter the damage that would cause.
>>110185433AI wiped the fuck out, now i want the 300$ 128GB DDR5 that i was promised in my dream
Chinese have never been able to create AI without distillation so what is the issue here, they're just inept
>>110185433>is it starting?nothing ever happens.
>>110185491It helps to look at the political situation:>After Lula beat Bolsonaro, international finance rotated out of leftist countries>Rotate out of Brazil, but also China>Rotate into US capital instead, hence US stocks went up while China and Brazil crashed>China officially lost the AI raceBasically it's tied to politics. Trump cannot keep the riggidy jig up for another two years, so it likely happens when Democrats sweep midterms.No, it's not too big to fail, thanks to Boomer NIMBY.No, the Government cannot bail it out, thanks to the size of the National Debt.The game of chicken ends in either WWIII, or GPUs and RAM being dirt cheap, with every household owning a local AI rig.
>>110185523You don't know that, maybe they just didn't release it to the public and are working on it behind closed doors in secret.
>>110185433Could chink ram finally save the consumer market?
>>110185601Luddite cope
>>110185636Only chink consumer market
>>110185601I am a Bosnian gamer and I do not approve of this message
>>110185601I feel like this skips over some VERY unpleasant churn over the next year for people not even in the tech sector. I remember 2008 being absolute hell on people entering the job market. The ISDs were forced to let any teacher with less than 3 years experience go, and class sizes swelled up to like 35 kids per class, just because state and local tax revenues plummeted.
>>110185786I don't understand how states are running out of money if they're making 3X more revenue from property taxes because the housing market is crazy.And if prices on regular goods goes up, that means they make more money on sales taxes too, and if gas goes up, they're making more money on that.Where is all the money going?
>>110185636Chink RAMs will be banned in US. There will be yet another chink auto situation where RAM will be really cheap in China and selected countries (global south, Australia etc.), 2x to 3x as expensive in EU (but still cheaper than alternative) and completely banned in US.
>>110185734>>110185636lol, China has shit tech and yields due to it. They can't produce enough for their key nationally strategic tech companies let alone consumer level devices.In fact they are asking for 10 year supply contract with Korean companies.Everything is fake in China. Its all about lying to appear competent on a global stage.>>110185908They stole the IP from Samsung so it would eventually get an injunction against selling it in the US and EU. The government would have a valid reason to shit on chinese ram outside of 'national/economic security' reasons.
>>110185762Obsessed with bosnianGODSYou lost, snailcat
>>110185872welfare for immigrants mostlynot tongue in cheek that is literally where most of it's going and it's basically inaccessible to you if you're White
>>110185872>I don't understand how states are running out of money if they're making 3X more revenue from property taxes1. In my state, state legislatures have scaled back on school funding even as home values went up, leading to local municipalities to make up the difference.2. The rising home costs have meant no one with kids moves here. They've closed 50% of our elementary schools because no one with kids can afford to live inside city limits any more. It's all 60+ in our neighborhood if they own a home, most of the families with kids are in rentals, and it seems like it's fewer and fewer kids out in the parks every year.Just setting ourselves up for a generational decline so we can pikachu face it when the bill comes due in a decade or two.
>>110185940>reddit spacing>uses chinese instead of chink whilst still being vehemently racistwhy do redditors hate china so much? is it the npc programming?
>>110186093stop deflecting chang
>>110185433>itt, snailcats seething
>>110186098deflecting? I didn't even read your post. I was just looking for keywords after I saw the double spacing. how about you answer MY question?
>>110186110lol, chang mad
>>110185433BORN IN THE USA!!!!
>>110185433>wiping out roughly $480 billion in market valueit's related to physical, working and being built AI capacities how? market is a virtual toy, not related to reality in countries like china. only physical things matter and those aren't slowing down.if part says there is no debt tomorrow - there is not debt.
>>110186121says the scrawny little seanigger who couldn't even use the word chink because his ban-cucked reddit brain wouldn't even consider it
>>110186133>chang seethinglol
>>110185940>Everything is fake in China. Its all about lying to appear competent on a global stage.Idunno, Trump has been shitting his pants over china namba wan for like what 12 years now? To think that they're gonna stay still is a big fucking mistake
>>110186135/v/ tier reply from the genetically dumb brown seanigger. stay mad I called you out for being a reddit main.inb4 the npc makes the same post to bait me into virtue signalling my race like a good redditor when he can't even say the word chink.
>>110186163>changs who are seething will reply to this post
>>110186173>loses the argument so badly he has to write playground brat bullshit to get me off his assI accept your concession, brown. seamonkeys who are seething will be replied to in this post.
>>110185433Doesn't china intentionally crash their own markets to keep their shit cheap? This might not result in anything different for them or for the world
>>110186191Lmao! Seething chang confirmed!
>>110186199mental 12yo confirmed!! sadly this invalidates your thesis.still haven't said chink btw. I'm beginning to think you're a non-china chink. singapore? vietnam?
>>110186210I'm Japanese. Get off our website, chang.
>>110186210Indonesia or Thailand should've been your guess since population wise they have a lot of chinese, and also stop replying to that literal retard it's either a braindead reddit npc or a literal Langley AFB chat bot abortion
>>110185940This>>110186093>>110186140Cope
>>110186238I didn't know that. I see why that subcontinent produces so much seethe at china now.
>>110185786This time is different in the sense that, schools are literally closing because there aren't enough kids due to the birth rate collapse, and we are only at the tip of that iceberg.
>>110186238Retard alert.Chinas bronze age is over and it has begun fading back into the ether.Toyota will be the last idiot company to get screwed over by the Chinese and that will be that.
they will prop it up until anthropic and OAI IPO, and let it pop once retail and your 401k hold the bagsit's gonna be amazing to watch
>>110186102why did he get naked in panel 3
>>110185491The only thing you can really do to "delay" a disaster (by the point it is recognized as such) is to rev up the printers. Which is like trying to put out a fire by pouring gasoline on it.
>>110185440Can't spell silicon without con
>>110186018So what you're saying is that if it wasn't for immigrants, we could have probably paid for things like healthcare and education for the people who couldn't afford it?
>>110185872All of this is downstream from COVID inflation. They're not making more money, everybody's dollars are just worth less.
>>110185491>Certainly not under trump
>>110186891That can't be true because most taxes are percentage based. 6% of the higher inflated price is at LEAST the same buying power as before, and some of the price increase, especially for real estate, is not inflation.
>>110185491>"the banks are too big to fail" type situation.Banks provided an essential service, this analogy is completely misconstrued.
>>110185491huh? how would bailing out insolvent AI companies prevent a debt crisis kekif this fails then its all over, the entire global economy is going to fall into yet another recession and the jews will ppcket the money as per usual
>>110185491erm drumpfff? drumpff bad hahha drump!>farts
>>110187367The can pocket it as much as they like, shit is gonna be worthless when hyperinlation kicks in full gear.
>>110185433Wise CCP starting a controlled demolition. Meanwhile Americans will let the farce continue in the name of GDP until it ends in catastrophe Then they lose their job, become homeless, and end up overdosing on fentanyl (manufactured in China)
>>110187367>how would bailing out insolvent AI companies prevent a debt crisis kekShort answer: Bond markets.Bond markets are what decide fucking everything about a country. If the bond markets don't trust you anymore, you're finished. The US has the advantage over other countries in that it can weather some worse bond market evaluations because it's the global reserve currency, but that's not set in stone and also can't offset all the pressure, only some of it. The US is in massive debt and struggling to find a way out of that debt, with the only realistic plan set by the administration (the previous ones didn't have a better plan either) being "We will outgrow the debt, thus becoming more capable to pay it back". Now unlike most other countries, the US has actually decent growth, so people trust it a little more, even though the current plans are still wishful thinking.As long as people trust that they can do it, they lend for acceptable rates, and as long as that is the case the debt can be serviced. But if you look in detail into the growth then basically all of it is coming from AI. Partially from expected future earnings but also a lot from infrastructure spending (the whole compute race). If that one pillar falls, then the growth wishes are basically done from one second to the next. Once the promise of growth is done people will look at the debt more scared, which increases bond rates and we're fucked.So yes, bailing out an insolvent AI company to keep investor's confidence high would directly be linked to the debt crisis. Welcome to the modern world where everything is connected to everything else.
>>110185433Its a bluff, to scare the western AI investors, resulting in the collapse of the western AI sector while the Chinese just prop up their state controlled models.
>>110186198they don't want people's SOL to improve too fast because then they cannot upkeep the sweatshop 996 industryjewish thought transcends ethnicity and religion
>>110186477Real talk, if Anthropic is somehow worth 30 trillion dollars, is Google the steal of the fucking century. I unironically think they will be one of the sole survivors of this bullshit because it’s the only competent one attached to a business that already makes money.
>>110187670Nah, you don't get it.The US government interest is to have a financial crisis, so that there would be a massive flight to safety into bonds.That's their only realistic scenario of pushing yields lower, to create a situation in which demand becomes so huge yields keep going down.And then the government can roll over their debt at much lower rates. The Fed would also be forced to drop rates again to stimulate the economy. So then borrowing cost would sink.
>>110190619In a vacuum I'd agree with you that that would be a possible path that could be on the table.But US bonds live or die on their promise of economic growth. Without that growth, no one would be willing to buy bonds, because then the only way out at that point is running the printing presses which would devalue the investment.I get your point that in a financial crisis bonds get more attractive as they are more stable, but not if the entire selling point for the bond, the stability, is in question once the growth strategy doesn't work out.Either way this is getting a little off-topic for the board kek.
>>110190535AI slop has poisoned google search algos so much that I don't see them hanging on to anything but android app ecosystem at this point. Youtube is also getting rekt by AI slop.
Apparently the stocks here are robotics and related manufacturing that barely has any wide utility but is still treated as "AI" stock. Unlike the west "AI" like Micron and Nvidia, who are well established and whose products are in great demand. This AI bubble pop in china will have no impact on US AI stocks
>>110190619Money is so fake and weird, I'm going to stockpile rice or something
>>110185516I want 24GB VRAM GPUs for the low NOW
>>110191261so what i'm inferring from that is, companies slapping the AI label on everything to be trendy, they got dumpedi wonder if there are any US companies doing thati wonder if any of them are using Micron and Nvidia products to do that
>>110190648"Running the printing presses" would just mean the average citizen is getting poorer
>>110185433nothing is starting unless the bubbles directly supported by the us is popped
>>110186507why didn't you?
>>110185601>with every household owning a local AI rigLMAO you think they will allow you to have any compute power at home?Why would they?
>>110185433Boomers who keep pumping out AI pics of themselves on Facebook sure as hell don't pay for it. I doubt they ever will.
>>110195680Boomers are the only ones with cash to spend on these idiotic frivialities.
>>110185491yes goyTrump has your best interests at heart
wha happen
>>110195725I swear something happened where reading comprehension went to die in the last few years.You're arguing with a post that specifically said he's so selfish he'd do whatever it took to delay the inevitable just to feed his ego, even if it meant horrible things for the country you goddamn retard.
>>110185491Some companies fiddling with AI are 100% safe, like google and microsoft, any US president would rather bankrupt every taxpayer than let those fail. But AI only companies like anthropic and openai are going to get eaten alive if the bubble pops.
>>110185491>trump
>>110196117I don't know man. Obviously they'd never let google or microsoft fail, but I can't imagine a world where AI "pops" because the US essentially went all-in and hinged their entire financial future on AI working out. Again, if one of the AI only companies fails, I can see that. If it's multiple to the point where "Ai growth isn't the future" becomes a sentiment, bond markets would rape the US government. I doubt they can afford that to happen.But then again government incompetence isn't really unheard of.
>>110196236US gov would have to nationalize the AI industry / plant, so go from whatever 40t to 50t in debt overnight, dollar would devalue in line but so would nearly every other currency because otherwise it would be too hard to sell to the US. "Our dollar your problem". You might make like 10 or 15 percent holding Euros or Canadian dollars or whatever avoiding the direct bailout costs but the hurt would be spread globally.
Circumcised desimerican poojoos btfo, china won
>>110197010I mean yeah I'm not disagreeing with you. If it were to all go down it'd be a global issue immediately.
>>110185433there's no "bubble", just seething troons, it's literally just USA seethingyes, retarded companies overestimated what is basically ELIZAno, it's not going to "pop" internet cables were worthless when first set up, now that investment is pricelesssomeone must make the first steps and train the first modelsthese companies are investing so much into LLMs because if they don't, they're going to get left behindthe fucking hardware prices going up is tragic, thoughgood thing I'm not a waitmoron and built a good PC before this bullshit
>>110198510Anon, the current AI tech is just fake.Is not intelligence, is just a glorified search engine with a giant database from all the internet.It will never code anything beyond what it can copy (badly) from github and similar programs, it not make any image/videos that's not just pieces of existing images/videos cobbled together/randomized.Those cables are of the wrong material.
>>110195445Why do you believe Trump is not going to sacrifice all billionaires to save his own ass?
>>110198803anon, if you read my post, I literally called it elizano one claims it's "intelligence", it's an LLM, it's in no way "fake">glorified search enginereductive - it's a pattern-seeking machine, a damn good one, in its infancy, might I add>It will never code anything beyond what it can copy (badly) from github and similar programsYou can't claim that, very debatable, complete asspullThe code is good, too, Claude is smart>it not make any image/videos that's not just pieces of existing images/videos cobbled together/randomizedActually, it might - but anon, no one is claiming it does that now, and it doesn't need to, this is a non-issueIt's a tool, a good one, I really see no reason for the seethe as a game developer, musicianyou don't just tell it what to do and sit back - that's wrong, it needs human imagination and input
>>110198913Can it really improve? or this is the actual limit of LLM?Thats the point.
>>110198938not really the point, but of course it can, tech improvesI saw LLMs specifically rise from autocomplete, initially just for translation, then early GPT. gpt to claude was an insane leap, and even back then we knew it would improve - and it was shit back thenLLMs hallucinate, lie, make shit up, and with each iteration they do that less and less - they are still retarded a bit but MUCH less retarded than back then, it doesn't even compareat this point, Claude is genuinely great - and it has been great since opus 3 - it just wasn't smart, but now opus, fable are insanegemini has an insane database - it can google, and it does, but I used versions without google through a frontend - like I had googling disabled - and that fucker knows every single character from the most obscure movies because it was basically trained on entire wikisas for diffusionI, and you remember SHITTY ai "art" which looked like a schizo dream - deepmind with the slugs, then shitty anime girls and early dall-eI remember people making a big deal about diffusion not handling fingers and eyes well - now it's trivial for any modelthe will smith scale is a good gauge
>>110198824To save HIS own ass. Not yours, not mine.He will do what any other tyrant does. Surround himself by loyals and sacrifice the rest.
>>110201259Trump cares about the struggles of the common man. I voted for him twice, he would never forget.
nothingburgergoogle by itself lost more stock than that yesterday
It starts with shit like this and it's only ever going to get better, and better and better until it does everything.https://www.tau-robotics.com/
>>110198510>there's no "bubble"There very clearly is, the massive debt and valuations are there. you can only argue up until now that it won't pop.>internet cables were worthless when first set up, now that investment is pricelessNo, not priceless. It was bought for pennies on the dollar and eventually found use. It could have been built 10 years later when there was actual, paying demand no problem. And this is only true because it's physical infrastructure that doesn't become obsolete. This will only apply to the AI bubble with the physical buildings of the datacenters, not even the computer hardware.But those companies are gone now. and most of the .com bubble was software companies that left nothing for the world. When we say the AI bubble we don't mean that the tech is going away, we mean that the companies are going bankrupt. Their models will be sold off and ran for profit in the future.>these companies are investing so much into LLMs because if they don't, they're going to get left behindThere is no "left behind" though. Everyone gets a free yearly catch-up from open models. You AI bulls have to prove that there is actual profit to be made from this slight advantage in time, where openAI/anthropic spend billions on compute and staff to make GPT-4, GPT-4.5 and run it at a loss for a year, and then I get kimi for $0.Im not speaking from nothing either, I have been running a service that relies on LLMs since before chatgpt and the whole AI hype came about, and I used to pay $1000/mo+ to openAI now I spend one tenth of that on openrouter for open weight models.
>>110185940Anon said consumer marketData centers use HBM, not DRAM. It's way harder to make
>>110195725delirious niggers like this one have the same voting power as anybody else btw
>>110185433>Market valueLiterally meaningless. Companies gain and lose (ridiculous) value overnight, that's just the market correcting itself.
