Everyone is expecting the Anthropic IPO to be a disaster, pop the AI bubble and so on. Does that mean it's gonna 5x?
>>62838415There is very little unbiased commentary. People who like AI tend to make positive comments, and people who dislike AI make negative comments. I think Claude is amazing and can replace an enormous amount of white collar workers, so my view is more positive and I don't see it dumping.Their datacenter commitments are huge, but they are spread over many years and it's probably a mistake to pretend that Anthropic will be held at gunpoint to pay for every single one exactly as agreed. Considering delays and shortages (of land, power, hardware, permissions) in the construction of new capacity, many of their partners may not be able to deliver exactly as specified, so a lot of the risk likely cuts both ways. It will be in everyone's interest to make it work even if that means renegotiated contracts, both from a project as well as circular financing perspective.The moat question is significant, but self-hosting models and even using Chinese models at all probably doesn't fly for many companies. Claude is getting adopted quite quickly in software development and many users may not have an incentive to switch as token prices go down further.I can also see them spinning out lots of vibecoded projects like the cybersecurity, design and financial services stuff they did earlier. Should they ever have a lot of unused capacity, they can make a more serious effort at going after revenue in those areas.
>>62838415redditors and normies think i'm going to plunge to my death so i'm going to step harder on the gas because they're all wrong and retarded because they're normies and redditors you CANT predict a crash (warren buffet says so)
>>62838415It will easily 5x. The spiritual hope of replacing all workers alone will ensure that it pumps forever.
Yeah its 5x on 2 trillion lol
I'm not selling until normies who watch SNL and bananaball know what a "neocloud" is
>>62838415Why 5x saaar why not 500x bebchid?
>>62838415>Everyone is expecting the Anthropic IPO to be a disasterwho is this "everyone" ?your discord trannoid friends?
>>62839663I haven't seen a single person say anything positive about it
Why do you think IPOs are made? Do you think the owners are being friendly and just want to share the upside with the public?
>>62838415They're going to be rated junk and they'll have to raise hundreds of billions of dollars at 8+% yields to pay for all the deals they signed.
Why they're losing $80 billion a year if they're not even building datacenters?
>>62839821>Mostly Paper Accounting ($72.4 billion): About $72.4 billion of the loss is a non-cash accounting charge. As Anthropic's overall company valuation increased, the value of convertible notes and early investor financing instruments (IOUs that turn into stock) also rose. Accounting rules require the company to record that theoretical rise in value as a paper loss. No physical cash left the company's bank accounts for this adjustment.
>>62839821that figure is just accounting bullshityou should be worried about the 800 billion in commitments
>>62840373>you should be worried about the 800 billion in commitmentsFrom a common sense perspective, these commitments are arguably aspirational. Many compute suppliers may not be able to finish them on time or at all. Some agreements will have to be renegotiated.It feels like there ought to be several other strong correlations here. If compute vendors manage to get funding, permissions and other resources to deliver hundreds of billions in compute on time within the next few years and bill Anthropic for it, then the AI market at large and thus Anthropic are probably also doing OK.On the other hand, if Anthropic is going to struggle trying to shoulder those commitments, those other vendors are also unlikely to complete and bill in full for all of these projects, so a lot of stuff would be cancelled or reduced in scope instead of bankrupting Anthropic.
>>62839854>>62840373>that figure is just accounting bullshitthat "accounting bullshit" represents a very real debt held by the company's financial backers who are very much in the hole right now
Jew scamDon’t be exit liquidity for homosexual jews
>>62838415you think it will 5x at a 2 trillion evaluation starting point? early investors and employees are going to cash the fuck out of itanthropic might have the best model right now but think about it long term, many other labs public models are close in performance and they are all cheaper, this could develop in many different ways, favorable or notthey have yet to prove that they can sustain their growth beyond software, justify massive investments on infrastructure and they will be deeply dependant on the success of many other companies; neoclouds, semiconductors, hardware and tech in generalit is risky as fuck
>>62838415It can't x5 when it's already 2t at the start. It's another SpaceX that will +50% then drop hard. But just like with SpaceX IPO other smaller stocks related to them will surge.
>>62838705Based and Akagi pilled.
>>62838415I think it will pump big then dump back down, big ipo’s ALWAYS do badly, Facebook was down like 50% 6 months from their ipo, yeah SpaceX did alright but it simultaneously didn’t pump as much as some hoped and didn’t crash as much as others thought AI stocks in China completely crashed, there’s the thought that Chinese can just steal from Claude but they still have to pay for that
A lot of employees are going to retire off dumping their bags on you
Dude the word is that those bonds are getting rated not as investor grade but junk on the high end of the scale. No fucking boomer will touch this shit when they can invest in elon
This turd will be a free short a couple of days after the IPO
I have this theory that the top model attracts the smartest users which then gives the model the best training data, leading to a reinforcement loopAnthropic might unironically 5x if it’s true
>>628384155X? No. But there is going to be lots of FOMO and I expect it to pump. How much is anyone's guess, we just had a bunch of companies eat shit because they are not making the earnings they promised 5 years ago on AI. But everyone is going to get into the Anthropic IPO regardless of what the news says because if you happen to be the person who bets 50K on the Stock Machine Roulette on the biggest winner of the night, and it goes even 3x, you've made enough money to last a while. 3X seems much more likely.
>>62841730The smartest users know better than to agree to let Anthropic use their training data for free. Anyone with a brain turns that shit off and opts out the microsecond they have access to the controls.
>>62841733A 3x from 2trillion would make it the biggest company in the world. The product isn't even viable and the tokens are heavily subsidized, and it is facing the grave threat of open source models doing 85% of the work for only user electricity costs.
>>62841747Local models are so much slower than cloud ones and that’s the shit low end ones
>>62841757they really aren't. there is a huge amount of open source tooling available. with minimal investment, any corporation can set up their own internal local LLM and completely bypass the need for a subscription AI service that will steal all their data.
>>62841736That’s exactly what Claude said when I asked him
>>62838415>Everyone expecting it to a disaster.I'm not surrounded by trannies or antivaxxx retards so I haven't heard anything like that.
>>62838415if the AI shit actually did something other than make a million rehashes of emu code in these "recomp" projects, I would be hype. I don't see proof it does anything more than just shit out low effort code that's passable.
>>62838415We speculated the same thing for spacex, just being a shitshow and crashing the market. Luckily I sold over 200. Can't always do the against the narrative play.
