Midterms EditionKnown current platforms:polymarket.comkalshi.comalphaarcade.com
So I just threw a shitload of money on Paxton to beat Talarico in Texas. Gemini (Polymarket curated subset) has Talarico at 41% odds, BUT there are good reasons he's going to kick the shit out of Talarico:1. black voter turnout is dogshit because the jungle bunnies are pissed off that Jasmine Crockett didn't win the primary, and2. some unknown group just mailed out tranny literature taken directly from a Texas troon advocacy group's website to a shitload of the parents in Texas.In case you hadn't heard, Talarico really really loves trans kids. He's said so on multiple occasions. Like, he's seriously into the whole "I love those little trans kiddies with their tight bussies and budding sexuality" thing. Like, dude, put it back in your pants, you creepy perverted sicko, they're kids!So some group, presumed to be Republicans, decided to make sure that parents are up in arms about the "we're cumming for your kids . . . to get them to cut off their dicks and tits!" issue. Picrelated is #2. The contents were taken directly from a Texas troon advocacy organization's website, and are all 100% truly representative of what the pro-troon groomers side believes and wants. The Democrats are flailing around about how to react; they can't bitch about the contents because that would indicate that they're disgusted by their current favorite "victims" group, and it's not really possible for them to lie and claim that the contents aren't representative because the contents were taken directly from the troon group's very own website. About all they can do is seethe and whine about how it's unfair to "out" them to sane parents who weren't paying attention. Meanwhile, parents are seeing these brochures addressed generically to "The Students of the _____ Residence", opening them up, and becoming horrified and incentivized to vote against Troon-Lovin' Talarico.I think this is gonna put Paxton over the top, and the payout is nearly $2.50 for $1 bet ($1.50 profit).
I also bet on Hotwheels to win, because he's going to.And I threw some shekels (actually $50) on Lula to beat Bolsonaro in Brazil because the odds are 25% (bet a buck, get $4 if Lula wins, net profit $3). I don't know if Lula has an honest chance, but four years ago he won through massive vote fraud and I don't think Brazil has cleaned up the fraud problem. If he cheats hard enough, I make $200, and if he doesn't win, then I'm happy because it's one more nail in the coffin of LatAm communist fucktards.Viva Pinochet and free helicopter rides for commies.
Lastly, here's a blast from the past (May 19, 2026):https://warosu.org/biz/thread/62233513#p62249509> If anyone wants an almost total lock that will get you a 1.5x on your bet, here it is:>> https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached/kximpeach>> Current odds 67% that Trump will be impeached before January 1, 2028. Which is stupid because the odds are 100% that it will happen. The Dems are going to retake the House, and they have already promised repeatedly that they will file for impeachment. FFS during his first term they impeached him THREE TIMES in the two years that they had control of the House.>> Now, the Senate isn't going to have 67 Democrats seated to vote to convict him, but that doesn't matter, he's still impeached as soon as the House votes to impeach him.>> The only ways this doesn't win are: (1) somehow Trump pulls a miracle and the House remains Republican (which the redistricting in the wake of that Supreme Court racial gerrymandering case might accomplish, but it's still iffy), (2) Trump drops dead before any such vote is held, or (3) there's sneaky wording in the specific terms that make it contingent on conviction or space aliens landing or Zombie Jesus rising from the dead.>> Note that this is on Kalshi so if Trump were to be assassinated I think they would void the bet. [...] Also, I don't know what they would do if he keeled over of natural causes, but I would expect the market to be allowed to resolve normally as a "no" in that case. Right now, odds are almost zero that the Republicans will keep the House. Trump shows no signs of dropping dead. Someone else back then also reviewed the terms and agreed with me that there is no sneaky wording.There is some risk that the Dems will drag things out for over a year, but I doubt it; they've never shown any patience before, and they can always impeach him repeatedly just like they did during his first term.
>>62813549Oh, just to add, another reason it WILL happen (and probably almost immediately) is the Iran War. The Democrats are hopping mad about Trump violating the War Powers Act and bombing Iran without the consent of Congress. Once they have control of the House, they're going to be moving fast to throw tantrums over that (and good for them for doing it, fuck Trump and his "go die for Israel, goyim zogbots!" bullshit).
>>62813521You can tell Talarico is scared. He's not buying the "Texas is purple!" bullshit either.
I'm kinda surprised. Odds against Paxton have actually gone up since I added to my position yesterday.
BTW, there are some solid arbitrage opportunities between Kalshi and Gemini where you can lock in double-digit percentage returns just within the next few weeks until the midterm elections settle. The one issue is tax treatment of losses -- if you're in the U.S., unless you're itemizing, you can't offset the losses, so you get taxed on the full net of your "win" even though the "loss" eats up 85% of it.
OP here again:>>62813530>And I threw some shekels (actually $50) on Lula to beat Bolsonaro in Brazil because the odds are 25% (bet a buck, get $4 if Lula wins, net profit $3). I don't know if Lula has an honest chance, but four years ago he won through massive vote fraud and I don't think Brazil has cleaned up the fraud problem. If he cheats hard enough, I make $200, and if he doesn't win, then I'm happy because it's one more nail in the coffin of LatAm communist fucktards.>>Viva Pinochet and free helicopter rides for commies.My $50 bet bought me 190 "contracts". In case you guys haven't seen the news, Brazil had some "voting problems" today and so they extended the hours on voting -- which is seen as favoring Lula and seriously harming Bolsonaro.So far, Lula is slightly ahead in the votes that have been counted, so I jumped on Gemini and cashed out 100 contracts for .57 each, covering the cost of my bet plus a nice little profit of $7.If Lula wins, then I get another $90, which will pay for a bottle of Laphroaig #018 to drown my sorrows in. If Lula loses, then I've still made a 14% profit in less than 18 hours off that commie fuck, and I'll go buy the Laphroaig to celebrate.This is how you /pred/ator, people.
Why are you supposed to trust Polymarkeet after this?
Can somebody help a Eurobro use prediction markets? They're all banned here. I could use the ones on hyperliquid and they also banned them. I've heard about people using vpns and getting their funds blocked.
>>62817567Why wouldn't I trust them? They've paid out on every bet I've won. Hell, they even resolved an ambiguous one in my favor.So now I've >>62817263 made $97 net profit after risking $50. Could have made $140 if I'd just let it all ride but oh well.
>>62817617>I've heard about people using vpns and getting their funds blocked.AFAIK that usually happens because the blocks of IP addresses used by commercial VPN providers are pretty obvious.You can set up your own personal private VPN by renting a cheap server with a static IP somewhere. Then nobody else is going to use your IP address to hit up geoblocked services. I keep meaning to do that, but each time I've tried, the country I was going to use for it banned prediction markets. :-/ I think I'm going to have to give up on finding one in Europe, the politicians there are so cucked that they think prediction markets actually sway people's voting choices instead of just pointing out reality.If anyone knows a server rental place in Argentina, PLMK. Last time I looked, I couldn't find any.
Just added a $1000 bet on Ashley Hinson to win Ohio. She's slightly ahead in the polls, Republicans usually outperform polls in Iowa, and the odds on Gemini/Polymarket are only 62% so I'm getting $1.57 for every dollar bet (if I win).
>>62817900>Just added a $1000 bet on Ashley Hinson to win Ohio.Oops. That should be "Iowa".
>>62817636Thanks for the info, man. I hate how they treat us like fucking children. Just let us use prediction markets, it's my money.
>>62818232Speaking of Ohio, I missed out on a major opportunity. I should have bought "Vivek NO" (meaning anyone except Vivek would win) weeks ago.Wondering what's going to happen with my Lula bet now that Bolsonaro is trying to get the election annulled. It looks like it should pay out but it might go into limbo for a while. Regardless, I locked in my profit, they aren't going to claw back the already-cashed-out bet.
>>62813521>>62814660
Looks like a lot of the "Texas is turning blue!" shit is coming from India.
>>62823520the biggest indian supporter and paxton donor runs that entire website
I'm in for like $30k on these 3 bets>Hinson to win IA>Paxton to win TX>Blue Tsunami NO (51+ Senate and 235+ House seats)IA/TX have massive red moats so pricing them at 58% and 38% are positively insane. I would give the R a 90% chance minimum.For the last bet the Senate is already a daunting enough task for D's this year when races like MI and ME are competitive, much less the rest of the R+12 field they're hoping to steal. But the 235 House threshold is bulletproof. They only got 235 in 2018 with a D+8 year. Since then redistricting has favored Republicans overall and turnout right now is looking like half that, more like D+4. Basically a bond.I've closely analyzed the early vote and it looks like a dead even kind of year. Which means red states stay red states, no shock flips. Giving me underdog odds in this climate is basically a crime. Were I a richer man I would be putting $1 million down.
can you not have a general called /pred/ on 4chan? thanks
>>62823731>Blue Tsunami NO (51+ Senate and 235+ House seats)On which site do you find this bet?IDK about 235 in the House but my count says the Dems will get 51 Senate seats. :-(
>>62823742I would have called it Prediction Markets General but there's already a /pmg/.
Should I bet on Paxton? Ive never bet before but Ive been hearing him winning is guaranteed andthe money would be nice.
>>62824392>Ive been hearing him winning is guaranteedIt very much is not guaranteed, but he's one of the main bets I'm making. I strongly believe the polling is complete horseshit and that most of his support is being astroturfed, but I could easily be wrong. The Bush wing of the Republican Party wants Paxton to lose, Cornyn is sabotaging Paxton in revenge for being primaried, and the Democraps are dumping advertising money into the race to try to flip the seat.If you want a safer bet, the Republican is ahead in the polls in the Iowa race but Polymarket still is giving roughly a 25% return despite that.In Texas, Abbott still looks like he's beating Hinojosa and the bet will return about 10%.I'd give better numbers but either Gemini is down or my account has been compromised, either way it won't let me log in right now.
All in on paxton just now
>>62824650Good luck, here's hoping.
>>62817622BTW they just settled my Lula bet. No idea if they delayed settlement due to the controversy, but Bolsonaro gave up on contesting the election, and there's a rumor now that he's fled Brazil.
>>62824547Finally got in again. Abbott is at 70%, so a $1000 bet will win $1326. (Strangely my order isn't showing up as a position yet, there may be nobody wanting to bet that Hinojosa will lose.)For Iowa Senate, Hinson is at 59% but volume is thin and would push the number up to around 64%, so $1000 would win $1524.
Anyone know what the truth is on Vivek in Ohio?Someone posted a new poll showing him beating the mentally ill chick. Not sure I buy it.
>>62827968The chick who got raped that he made fun of? You're fucking crazy if you think people are gonna vote an Indian who did that vs a white woman
Any more good bets to place?
>>62824329In order to get 51 they need a sweep of the battlegrounds minus IA/TX. Not likely when they're facing AK, MI, OH, ME, even GA. Only one of those needs to go red.Even so yes, 235 is the final insurance figure. Even in 2018 at the height of their D+8 wave they only managed 235, and that was before the recent redistricting war which Republicans won>>62827968Vivek is a stay away for me. Gubernatorial races are full of aisle-crossing and I'm still not sure if Ohio conservatives will vote for an Indian. There are much better odds out there. If you want a similar long shot Sullivan at 26% in AK is insanely good odds given it's an R+12 state and he already won the Senate there in 2020 by 12%. That's even before the latest revelations about Peltola hiring the phony Sullivan for vote cannibalization.
>>62813492Bump for luck be a lady kek dealer
>>62813492
